It's a well known fact that, since the start of the NHL's cap era, American Thanksgiving has more or less determined which teams will make the post season: 77 percent of teams in a playoff position on that fateful November Thursday will play more than 82 games this season. Last year, in 2024, 12 of 16 teams (or 75 percent) in a playoff spot at Thanksgiving were still playing hockey well into April.
That's bad news for the St. Louis Blues because, no matter how you try and slice it, they are far out of a playoff position--and don't have an easy path to getting into one. We wrote earlier this month that the Blues were a few weeks out from a crossroads, and we've now reached that point. The team hasn't improved since then, and key roster players are showing up on early trade boards.
It's time for the Blues to face the music, and accept that this season is lost. The trade deadline may not be until March, but they should start shopping players now; management needs to take a good hard look at the core they've assembled and figure out if they can reload and remain a contender, or rebuild completely. It's Doug Armstrong's final season as general manager, and while a rebuild would be quite an undertaking for rookie GM Alex Steen when he takes over this summer, it may be the only viable course of action.
The sooner the organization can admit that, the better. It doesn't mean immediately selling off everything not nailed down (though getting a player or two to waive their no-trade clauses would expedite things), but taking meaningful action to position the club better for the future. It might take time for the front office to get comfortable with that mindset, but there's no time like the present.
It may be Thanksgiving, but there's little the Blues--and their fans--have to be thankful for this year. Maybe next season we'll be having a different conversation.