The St. Louis Blues--at least during former general manager Doug Armstrong's tenure--had a penchant for handing out bloated contracts to aging veterans. Several of those questionable contracts are still on the books: Colton Parayko, signed into his late 30s; the injured Torey Krug, now in the final year of his contract; and Justin Faulk, who was traded to the Detroit Red Wings. Even the Cam Fowler extension, though just three years, could be a real issue for the Blues' defense group.
There's only one aging forward in recent memory, however, that got that sort of term and money: Pavel Buchnevich--and early returns are looking lousy.
The contract itself
Armstrong had a tendency to sign players as soon as they were eligible for an extension (one year before their current contracts expired), often just to get it out of the way so it wasn't a concern during the season. That sort of approach makes sense for young restricted free agents, who have a good chance to outperform their cap hits (Robert Thomas is an excellent example), but it can get teams in trouble when applied to aging unrestricted free agents. Buchnevich falls into the latter category.
Buchnevich signed his six-year, $8-million annual average value (AAV) extension on July 2, 2024--a full year before his four-year, $5.8-million AAV contract was over. That meant his new contract wouldn't kick in until he was already 30 years old, which is generally accepted to be the end of a player's prime years. Add in a full no-trade clause (NTC) in the first four years, and a modified NTC in the final two, and it looks like the sort of contract a top-line, star player should have.
Why Buchnevich earned it, initially
In the three seasons leading up to the extension, Buchnevich had scored 25 or more goals in each--including a 30-goal 2021-22 that saw him score 76 points in 73 games, and a 2022-23 that saw him once again break the point-per-game threshold, scoring 67 points in 63 games. His scoring tailed off somewhat in 2023-24, registering 63 points in 80 games, but 27 goals was tied for second on the team with Jake Neighbours; the Blues' finishing abilities were paltry.
So, rather than risk Buchnevich walking in free agency the following summer (and, presumably, to keep teams from calling about him all year), Armstrong inked his six-year extension.
The long-term ramifications
Things have not gone well in the two years since. In the final year of his previous deal, Buchnevich tallied only 20 goals and 57 points in 76 games. He scored 20 goals again in the first year of the extension, but only 48 points in 81 games. He'll be 31 years old when this season starts, and it looks like his game's already falling off.
Even with the cap skyrocketing over the remainder of his contract, a 50-point player should not be making $8 million against the cap. The Blues can get away with it somewhat because they're saving so much on the Robert Thomas, Dylan Holloway, and Philip Broberg contracts, but they've got some major extensions to get done by next summer: Jimmy Snuggerud, Jake Neighbours, and Logan Mailloux all need new contracts before the 2027-28 season. Alex Steen will have to navigate the Buchnevich contract to get those deals done.
There are a few ways forward, at least. Maybe Buchnevich gets back to being a 60ish point player, and the cap goes up so much that his contract is far less onerous; perhaps he'll accept a trade to a new team--he'd be especially appealing to a contender if the Blues are willing to retain a portion of his contract. A buyout is technically an option, though the Blues would be paying Buchnevich for the next eight seasons to get cap relief in the short term.
Whatever the outcome of Buchnevich's tenure in St. Louis over the coming years, hopefully Steen has learned not to be so quick to hand out contract extensions to aging veterans. It'll take a lot of maneuvering to return the Blues to contender status, and hefty contracts for middle-of-the-lineup players are rarely advisable.
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