There's no worse place for an NHL organization than the "mushy middle." This is the place where teams aren't good enough to be taken seriously as contenders for a Stanley Cup championship, but not bad enough to land premium prospects at the top of the draft. These are teams that end up on the bubble of the playoffs--or maybe make the postseason, only to be unceremoniously routed by a much better team.
Today at The Athletic, they looked at seven teams that are at risk of getting stuck in the mushy middle in the next few years. For once, the St. Louis Blues were not one of those teams.
They were, however, one of the honorable mentions at the end. That's some progress, right? There are a few reasons the Blues are on the edge of the mushy middle, some internal and some external--let's break 'em down.
The internal issues
These are, in general, symptoms within the Blues organization that could lead to them being stuck in the mushy middle. Robert Thomas is the team's best player, and he has a solid supporting cast in Dylan Holloway, Philip Broberg, and Joel Hofer; rebound seasons and further development from Jimmy Snuggerud, Mason McTavish, and Logan Mailloux could provide even stronger depth. With this roster--barring catastrophic injuries or another year of horrific goaltending--the Blues are too good to end up with a top draft pick. They've got some decent prospects on the way, too, that could keep them competitive.
The problem, then, is the ceiling of the team--and that the next wave of prospects might not be good enough to push the Blues to another level. The Blues need more high-end talent beyond Thomas, and they'll either need one of their draft picks to dramatically overperform their draft slot, or execute a blockbuster trade to bring in a true needle mover. An aging roster of depth players and middle-sixers isn't going to win a championship--especially if they don't clean up their contract situation.
The external troubles
Through no fault of their own, the Blues are in the most top-heavy division in hockey. The Central Division is home to three of the league's top teams in the Dallas Stars, Colorado Avalanche, and Minnesota Wild; meanwhile, the Utah Mammoth are a young team on the rise, the Nashville Predators improved significantly this summer, and the Winnipeg Jets are only a year removed from winning the Presidents' Trophy. It's not hard to envision the Blues finishing sixth in the Central, but having more standings points than the third-place team in the Pacific Division, thus missing the playoffs. Last season, for example, the Philadelphia Flyers made the playoffs as the third-place team in the Metropolitan Division--their 98 standings points would've put them first in the Pacific, above the Vegas Golden Knights' 95 points.
Even if the Blues manage a wildcard berth, they'll have to face the first-place team in either the Pacific or Central. They may've nearly beaten the Jets in the first round a couple of years ago, but any of the three Central juggernauts? Seems unlikely--the Blues lack the star power to go toe-to-toe with those teams.
That all comes back around to the internal issues: the Blues are clearly not a bad team, merely a good one--but they don't have a clear path to the star power that would threaten other teams in their division. They'll need a lot of luck to become a contender, because being stuck in the mushy middle is no one's idea of a good time.
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