One of the areas of concern for the St. Louis Blues, a month into the season, has been their third defensive pairing. Tyler Tucker has been decent, registering a goal and three assists for four points in 16 games. He has also been decent on defense, having a xGA of 7.46 according to Natural Stat Trick. The problem has been who should play next to him. The Blues have tried several players in this role to varying degrees of success.
Over the last few games, Matthew Kessel has emerged as a potential solution for this problem. In Tuesday night's game against the Flames, Kessel found the back of the net during the first period to give the Blues a 2-0 lead. This was Kessel's highlight moment after a few games of strong play. If the Blues want to put their best lineup out on the ice, then they need to make Kessel's role on the third pairing permanent.
Matthew Kessel is the best option to pair next to Tyler Tucker
Although Kessel has only one point this season, his metrics indicate he has been serviceable on defense. He's only allowed one goal while on the ice. Sure, his Expected Goals Against is 2.94, which is higher; however, it's not a big enough gap to cause much concern. He's also only allowed 27 scoring chances this season. However, only 48% of these scoring chances have been considered high danger. This means that the majority of the chances he allows have an average to a low chance of being a goal.
The case for Kessel only gets stronger when you look at the metrics when he plays with Tucker. According to Moneypuck, they have an xGoals Against of 1.4 and an xGoals Against Per 60 Minutes of 1.67. They have also only allowed five high-danger scoring chances according to Natural Stat Trick. To make their pairing even better, they have a Corsi of 51.90 and a High Danger Scoring Chance percentage of 61.54%. This means they play solid defense while also generating a decent amount of offense.
Kessel has been the most effective player the Blues have played next to Tucker. So far, the Blues have tried Justin Faulk and Logan Mailloux next to Tucker this season. These pairings have produced a worse xGoals Against and an xGoals Against Per 60 Minutes. For the Blues to make a run, they need all their lines to be producing. The best way to get the third pairing and Tucker producing is to have Kessel out there.
Although it's a short sample size, Kessel has more than proven he deserves to a staple of the Blues third pairing. He's gives the team solid defense, while also creating great opportunties for the Blues to put the puck into the back of the net. It may seem like a small move, but it could be the difference maker later in the season.