The St. Louis Blues are a team that aggressively extends its pending unrestricted free agents and, more often than not, they get burned for their boldness. No player better represents that misguided approach to contract extensions than Pavel Buchnevich, who has the least efficient contract on the team.
In his prime, Buchnevich was a point-per-game forward: effective on the power play and good enough defensively that coaches trust him. The problem for the Blues, then, is that Buchnevich's prime may be behind him, and the team's now saddled with a massive contract for an aging veteran who's unlikely to ever live up to the cap hit he commands.
Impact in 2025-26
The Blues were a bad team for most of the 2025-26 season, mostly due to goaltending that didn't right itself until after the 2026 Winter Olympics in Milan. That doesn't absolve the skaters, though, and Buchnevich is in the running for most disappointing season on the team. His 20 goals, 28 assists, and 48 points match his 2020-21 output exactly--except, five years ago, he did it in 54 games in the compressed COVID season. Last season, it took 81 games to reach that total.
While it may be a symptom of the abysmal goaltending and lousy defense, Buchnevich's minus-10 goal differential matches his career worst in 2018-19 with the New York Rangers when he was 23 years old. Buchnevich also saw his average ice time drop to 17:56, the lowest it's been since 2019-20, again with the Rangers. In short, it was not a good season for Buchnevich, and the injuries elsewhere in the lineup meant his shortcomings were far more obvious than usual.
Expectations for 2026-27
Buchnevich will be 31 years old when this season starts. Generally speaking, that's the tail end of a player's prime--if their best years aren't already behind them. For Buchnevich, it's unclear whether last season's performance will be his new normal or if it was a down year and he can get back to being a 60-plus point forward with decent defensive impact. Due to his age, the odds are against him.
Even so, there are reasons to be optimistic. The Blues have added Connor McMichael and Mason McTavish, which should push Buchnevich into a more sheltered role and keep him from playing center (an experiment last season that didn't work so well). Buchnevich still has a lot of special teams utility, particularly on the power play; if he can provide solid middle-six minutes and get more support from his linemates at five-on-five, the Blues will be perfectly happy to have him in the lineup.
There's no way for Buchnevich to escape the criticisms of his contract. The most he can do is show he's still able to contribute, and next season is an opportunity to do just that.
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