It would appear that GM Doug Armstrong has learned not to sign aging defensemen to long-term contracts with an Annual Average Value (AAV) of $6.5 million. Instead, he's extending an aging defenseman with an AAV of $6.1 million.
The newest recipient of one of Armstrong's overpays for a defenseman exiting his prime is Cam Fowler, acquired in a midseason trade last year from the Anaheim Ducks. The good news is that Fowler has been a good-to-great defenseman for most of his career--especially considering his surroundings on an awful Ducks team. When he joined the St. Louis Blues, he immediately went through a career renaissance, scoring 36 points and driving the Blues' top pair.
However, there's the bad news: Fowler is 33 years old, and will be 34 when his new contract kicks in--that means he'll be 37 when it expires. Giving a player a three-year extension (a year before it's even necessary!) based on a few good months is incredibly risky--especially when accounting for Fowler's age. With the expected cap increases, a $6.1-million AAV contract isn't the worst thing to have on the books as other contracts (Justin Faulk's, for example) end, but it is still a lot of money to have invested in an aging, post-prime defenseman.
More concerning is where it leaves the next general manager. Armstrong is retiring soon, so he'll never have to deal with the consequences of the contracts he's giving out, but that seems unfair to his chosen successor. There are seven players who will be free agents next summer, including Philip Broberg, Dylan Holloway, and Logan Mailloux, all of whom are expected to be core parts of the future of this team. The Fowler contract could present issues when trying to re-sign all of these players or going out and signing new ones in free agency.
Don't even get us started on the trade protections. If Fowler regresses, and the Blues need to clear his contract, there's no option other than a buyout until the second half of his final year. It's too much money for too much term for a player of Fowler's age, and the Blues should not have so cavalierly taken that risk.