At the start of the season, the St. Louis Blues had a problem: too many bottom-six forwards, not enough roster spots--and a prospect or two who could push the veterans for ice time. Before the puck dropped in Game One, it seemed that, of all those forwards, Mathieu Joseph was the odd one out. It made sense: he'd had a disappointing 2024-25 season, and hadn't lived up to his contract (which he's now in the final year of).
Boy, has Joseph flipped the script.
The box scores don't leap off the page at you: only two goals, four assists, and six points in 14 games while averaging 12:38 of ice time. However, under the surface, Joseph has been borderline dominant in his 5-on-5 minutes.
According to Natural Stat Trick, Joseph has a 57.22 expected Goals-for percentage (xGF%), which is fourth highest on the team behind Jordan Kyrou (!!), Nathan Walker and Nick Bjugstad. His Corsi-for percentage (CF%) is the third-highest among forwards behind Kyrou and Walker, with a 52.33 CF%. Both mark significant improvements for Joseph from last season.
It's important to remember, though, that part of why Joseph's underlying statistics are so good is the limited ice time. It's almost a minute more than last year, but with players like Joseph, they're able to perform best in a limited role. Head coach Jim Montgomery could move Joseph up the lineup, but there are two things to consider: firstly, would Joseph still succeed with more minutes piled on him, and secondly, who would drop down the pecking order to accommodate him?
If injuries strike or top players underperform (or get healthy scratched), perhaps Montgomery and the coaching staff will elect to give Joseph a chance in the top six. Until then, he can continue being a difference maker in the bottom six.