One of the first signs that this season may not be a good one for the St. Louis Blues was the incredibly disappointing start by Pavel Buchnevich. While the team has continued to spiral, there is one bright spot in recent weeks, and that is the huge turnaround Buch has done for this team.
Big Money, Small Production
On July 2nd of 2024, Buchnevich was signed to a six-year extension by Doug Armstrong, carrying an AAV of $8 million. At the time, this move was celebrated by most, given Buchnevich's consistent and reliable play in St. Louis. Buchnevich had been an anchor for the Blues' offense in the 3 years following his acquisition via trade from the New York Rangers. He was expected to continue to be one of the biggest pieces of the Blues' core through the end of the decade, but unfortunately, we saw a significant regression.
Buchnevich has seen a production decrease every season since becoming a Blue. Starting in 2021, he has posted seasons of 76 points, 67 points, 63 points, and 57 points, respectively. While some fluctuation is expected, this downward trend, along with the clear lack of confidence on the ice, has really soured many fans on Buch and his contract.
This Season's Numbers
Many in the organization were hoping Buchnevich would return to his previous form with the skilled pieces surrounding him on the roster this year, but what we saw was his worst start yet. In November, Buch put up just six points in the first 11 games of the season and followed that poor start with a shockingly bad 5-point December in 15 games played. He was playing a level of hockey that, for most players, would result in them getting assigned to the AHL or simply cut from the team. However, given the contract and the player, we know Buch can be; he was given every opportunity to find his game.
Thankfully for the Blues, he seems to finally be turning his play around. In the final four games leading up to the Olympic break, Buchnevich looked like a different player. He notched 3 goals and 3 assists for 6 points (more than his entire December combined), and perhaps most importantly, took 15 shots on goal in those contests. It was clear watching him that he has regained some of the confidence he has lost and seems to be in a good rhythm when on the ice. He has regained his proficiency in driving the offense and maintaining possession of the puck while also seeing the ice at an elite level, dishing up great passes to his younger linemates.
If the Blues want to be a competitive team in the next few years, they need Buchnevich to play at a high level. This team simply cannot overcome an $8 million player putting up 35 points in a season. With the young talent continuing to stack up and improve on this roster, Buch is undoubtedly a huge part of this organizational transition as Doug Armstrong and Alexander Steen look to future Cup contention for the Blues.