The St. Louis Blues finished outside the playoff picture last season, missing a Western Conference wildcard berth by only a few points after a late-season surge. Their season was sunk primarily by poor goaltending: Jordan Binnington had one of the worst seasons of his career, and Joel Hofer didn't come around until after the Winter Olympics. This summer, the front office--split between the tenures of Doug Armstrong and Alex Steen--made a flurry of moves, though whether that was enough to pull the Blues out of the mushy middle is up for debate.
The ultimate upside
In a perfect world, every move the Blues made exceeds expectations: Mason McTavish turns into a bona fide second-line center, Connor McMichael rebounds, Joel Hofer picks up where he left off, and everyone else on the roster stays healthy--especially Dylan Holloway and Robert Thomas, the two primary offensive drivers for the Blues. Add in developmental leaps from young players like Jimmy Snuggerud and Dalibor Dvorsky, and you're looking at a formidable team.
Everything going right seems unlikely, though, and the Blues play in the most top-heavy division in hockey. The Dallas Stars, Colorado Avalanche, and Minnesota Wild are in a class unto themselves, which means the Blues--if everything goes right--are still probably vying for a wildcard spot.
The worst-case scenario
We came close to seeing this last season: Thomas missed a number of games, Jordan Kyrou regressed significantly, the goaltending was atrocious, and the defense was mediocre at best. Kyrou may be gone, but if McMichael and McTavish don't get back on track, the Blues are going to struggle to generate offense. Stagnant development from Logan Mailloux, Dvorsky, Snuggerud, and other young players would force veteran players into roles they're no longer equipped to handle, and the Blues' depth chart would suddenly look quite shallow.
Two seasons in a row, we've seen it doesn't take much for a team to go off the rails early. In 2024-25, the Blues recovered early enough to squeak into a playoff spot and nearly ousted the Presidents' Trophy-winning Winnipeg Jets in the first round. In 2025-26, however, the rebound after the Olympics came too late to save their season. If they start slow for the third straight year, it's time to question whether this team actually has what it takes to contend for a Stanley Cup.
The reality
Reality is probably somewhere between these two extremes; the Blues, as constructed, aren't bad enough to fully bottom out. They're also, on paper, not good enough to go toe-to-toe with the big dogs of the league--the good news is that they may not need to be to sneak into a wildcard spot next season.
The Central Division's top three teams seem likely to repeat in the standings this year, barring a run of injuries that destabilizes their rosters. The Blues probably aren't going to get one of those three playoff spots.
The Pacific Division, on the other hand, is a joke. It's difficult to envision any team making a serious run at a wildcard spot, which should give the Blues an opening. Their toughest competition will come from within their own division, as the Nashville Predators (and, to an extent, Utah Mammoth) have improved enough to vie for a playoff spot. Add in a potential bounce-back for the Jets, and we should get an interesting race for those two wildcard spots.
That's the Blues' realistic ceiling: a bubble playoff team. If they were in the Pacific, things may be different, but that's the way the cookie crumbles when your division has three of the NHL's best teams in it. A few lucky breaks, and they're onto the postseason; a string of bad luck, and they're a lottery team again.
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