While the St. Louis Blues' 3-4-1 record is less than ideal, there have been a few positive developments to point to this season. Mason McTavish has been an excellent fit on the second line, and Connor McMichael's working out as well as one could've hoped. There are concerns, of course, but let's focus on another positive here today: the revitalized play of Pavel Buchnevich.
The scoring touch returns
What made Buchnevich so valuable--especially in his early seasons with the Blues--was his scoring touch. Through his first four seasons in St. Louis, Buchnevich scored 103 goals and 160 assists for 263 points in 292 games. That's an excellent top-six forward on any team.
Things went awry shortly after that, however. Last year, Buchnevich only scored 48 points in 81 games. The Blues had other, larger issues, but scoring goals is how teams win hockey games--and Buchnevich had been one of the team's better offensive facilitators since joining the organization in 2021. It could've been regarded as a slump year but, at 30 years old and in the first year of one of the league's least efficient contracts, there was serious cause for concern.
It's early days in the 2026-27 season but, through seven games, Buchnevich has a goal and five points. At the very least, he's showing he can still be an effective point producer, and proving he's still got some gas left in the tank. Doing it for an entire season--while not giving it all back defensively--is another matter.
Reasons to believe the production will continue
Buchnevich put up a lot of points with the Blues but, under the hood, he wasn't the one driving play. Using Natural Stat Trick's expected Goals-For percentage (xGF%), the only season Buchnevich was over 50 during his tenure in St. Louis was his first season, when he posted 52.12 xGF% in 2021-22. Last year's 49.42 xGF% was the closest he's come to being positive since then.
We'll caution that it's a small sample size, but Buchnevich is currently rocking an excellent 57.75 xGF%, which is fourth best among Blues forwards. That's likely a product of his linemates McMichael and McTavish, who are leading the team with 60.18 xGF% and 58.76 xGF%, respectively, but it does bode well for Buchnevich's continued chemistry with the two newcomers.
The more striking statistic is Buchnevich's shot differential: a whopping 63.01 CF% that leads all Blues skaters. Throughout his career, Buchnevich has been more or less breakeven, so this is quite an eye-popping new trend.
Again, it's a small sample size, but if Buchnevich is able to keep it up for the rest of 2026-27, he's on track to put up the best statistical season of his career by a country mile. The points are sure to follow.
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