Stop me if you've heard this one before: the St. Louis Blues start the season slow, fumbling around in the basement of the Western Conference, only to surge late in the season and push for a playoff spot. Two seasons ago, it worked out for them, and they nearly upset the Presidents' Trophy-winning Winnipeg Jets; last season, they fell a few points short of a postseason berth.
While we can hope the Blues don't run back the same film for a third straight year, the reality is they're still probably a bubble team. In the lead-up to the start of the 2026-27 season, The Athletic is doing season previews for every team in the league; today, they projected the Blues. The writers project the Blues to finish the season with about 88 points and a 41% chance of making the playoffs, with plenty of leeway for other outcomes. There's a lot more to unpack in the projection, so let's get into why they're likely to remain in the mushy middle.
The positives
According to the writers at The Athletic, the big question for the Blues this season is whether or not newcomer Mason McTavish can rediscover his game away from the Anaheim Ducks. Robert Thomas is the team's clear first-line center, and McTavish should have the inside track to slot in behind him. McTavish has some high-end offensive abilities, but his defensive game has been abysmal--largely due to issues with his skating. There's a reason Ducks coach Joel Quenneville not only kicked McTavish to the wing for stretches last season, but healthy scratched him in the playoffs as well.
The writers also highlight Dylan Holloway, who could still have another level to reach. He may've been limited to 59 games last season, but he torched opponents over the final 25 of the season, scoring 34 points on a line with Thomas and Jimmy Snuggerud. If Holloway stays healthy and Snuggerud takes another step, that will make a formidable top line.
The Blues also have a number of solid options for the fourth line and, to some extent, the third line. That middle six, however, is where the forward group starts to get shaky.
Where the Blues are lacking
The success of the Blues' middle-six forwards is going to hinge on the two newcomers, McTavish and Connor McMichael, and whether or not Pavel Buchnevich can somehow become a productive player again. If those three can form a respectable second line, the Blues will have decent depth up front. It's a gamble, though; we've already discussed McTavish's shortcomings, but McMichael had a disappointing season with the Washington Capitals before being traded, and Buchnevich's age makes it unlikely he ever lives up to the contract he's on.
More concerning than the forwards, though, is the defense--it's the Blues' biggest weakness heading into this season. According to The Athletic's models, the only defenseman on the Blues with a positive offensive rating is Philip Broberg. He's a great player, but the Blues desperately need some puck moving and scoring from their backend. A bounce-back season from Cam Fowler would rectify a number of these issues but like Buchnevich, age-related decline makes it far less likely.
Then, there are the goaltenders. Joel Hofer has got to be the starter for the season, because Jordan Binnington was one of the worst goalies in the league last season. If Hofer struggles early, head coach Jim Montgomery's going to need to rely on Binnington--and that could be disastrous if last season's play is Binnington's new normal.
The bottom line
The Blues have a great top line, a good starting goalie, and a fringe No. 1 defenseman--that's a lot of important pieces in place. The questions about the team's ceiling center on the defense's lack of depth and whether players coming off down seasons have the ability to rebound. There are reasons for optimism, but it's hard to expect too much considering how top-heavy the Central Division is and how lackluster the Blues were for long stretches last year.
That is why we play the games, though, instead of simulating seasons. Maybe the best the Blues' front office made this summer pay off, or maybe a rival team stumbles enough to give the Blues an opening. It should make for a fun season: there are plenty of reasons to be hopeful, and this isn't a team being crushed under "win now" expectations.
Add us as a preferred source on Google